Last data update: Apr 29, 2024. (Total: 46658 publications since 2009)
Records 1-30 (of 33 Records) |
Query Trace: Bruce BB[original query] |
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Power law for estimating underdetection of foodborne disease outbreaks, United States
Ford L , Self JL , Wong KK , Hoekstra RM , Tauxe RV , Rose EB , Bruce BB . Emerg Infect Dis 2023 30 (2) 337-340 We fit a power law distribution to US foodborne disease outbreaks to assess underdetection and underreporting. We predicted that 788 fewer than expected small outbreaks were identified annually during 1998-2017 and 365 fewer during 2018-2019, after whole-genome sequencing was implemented. Power law can help assess effectiveness of public health interventions. |
A prediction tool to identify the causative agent of enteric disease outbreaks using outbreak surveillance data
Kisselburgh H , White A , Bruce BB , Rose EB , Scallan Walter E . Foodborne Pathog Dis 2024 21 (2) 83-91 Information on the causative agent in an enteric disease outbreak can be used to generate hypotheses about the route of transmission and possible vehicles, to guide environmental assessments, and to target outbreak control measures. However, only about 40% of outbreaks reported in the United States include a confirmed etiology. The goal of this project was to identify clinical and demographic characteristics that can be used to predict the causative agent in an enteric disease outbreak and to use these data to develop an online tool for investigators to use during an outbreak when hypothesizing about the causative agent. Using data on enteric disease outbreaks from all transmission routes (animal contact, environmental contamination, foodborne, person-to-person, waterborne, unknown) reported to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we developed random forest models to predict the etiology of an outbreak based on aggregated clinical and demographic characteristics at both the etiology category (i.e., bacteria, parasites, toxins, viruses) and individual etiology (Clostridium perfringens, Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, Salmonella, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, and Shigella) levels. The etiology category model had a kappa of 0.85 and an accuracy of 0.92, whereas the etiology-specific model had a kappa of 0.75 and an accuracy of 0.86. The highest sensitivities in the etiology category model were for bacteria and viruses; all categories had high specificities (>0.90). For the etiology-specific model, norovirus and Salmonella had the highest sensitivity and all etiologies had high specificities. When laboratory confirmation is unavailable, information on the clinical signs and symptoms reported by people associated with the outbreak, with other characteristics including case demographics and illness severity, can be used to predict the etiology or etiology category. An online publicly available tool was developed to assist investigators in their enteric disease outbreak investigations. |
Clinical outcomes of patients with nontyphoidal salmonella infections by isolate resistance- Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network, 10 U.S. Sites, 2004-2018
Watkins LKF , Luna S , Bruce BB , Medalla F , Reynolds J , Ray LC , Wilson EL , Caidi H , Griffin PM . Clin Infect Dis 2023 BACKGROUND: Nontyphoidal Salmonella causes an estimated 1.35 million U.S. infections annually. Antimicrobial-resistant strains are a serious public health threat. We examined the association between resistance and the clinical outcomes of hospitalization, length-of-stay ≥3 days, and death. METHODS: We linked epidemiologic data from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network with antimicrobial resistance data from the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) for nontyphoidal Salmonella infections from 2004-2018. We defined any resistance as resistance to ≥1 antimicrobial and clinical resistance as resistance to ampicillin, azithromycin, ceftriaxone, ciprofloxacin, or trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (for the subset of isolates tested for all five agents). We compared outcomes before and after adjusting for age, state, race/ethnicity, international travel, outbreak association, and isolate serotype and source. RESULTS: Twenty percent of isolates (1,105/5,549) had any resistance and 16% (469/2,969) had clinical resistance. Persons whose isolates had any resistance were more likely to be hospitalized (31% vs. 28%, P=0.01) or have length-of-stay ≥3 days (20% vs. 16%, P=0.01). Deaths were rare, but more common among those with any than no resistance (1.0% vs. 0.4%, P=0.01). Outcomes for patients whose isolates had clinical resistance did not differ significantly from those with no resistance. After adjustment, any resistance (adjusted odds ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.46) remained significantly associated with hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a significant association between nontyphoidal Salmonella infections caused by resistant pathogens and likelihood of hospitalization. Clinical resistance was not associated with poorer outcomes, suggesting that factors other than treatment failure (e.g., strain virulence, strain source, host factors) may be important. |
Modelling counterfactual incidence during the transition towards culture-independent diagnostic testing
Healy JM , Ray L , Tack DM , Eikmeier D , Tobin-D'Angelo M , Wilson E , Hurd S , Lathrop S , McGuire SM , Bruce BB . Int J Epidemiol 2023 BACKGROUND: Culture-independent diagnostic testing (CIDT) provides rapid results to clinicians and is quickly displacing traditional detection methods. Increased CIDT use and sensitivity likely result in higher case detection but might also obscure infection trends. Severe illness outcomes, such as hospitalization and death, are likely less affected by changes in testing practices and can be used as indicators of the expected case incidence trend had testing methods not changed. METHODS: Using US Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network data during 1996-2019 and mixed effects quasi-Poisson regression, we estimated the expected yearly incidence for nine enteric pathogens. RESULTS: Removing the effect of CIDT use, CIDT panel testing and culture-confirmation of CIDT testing, the modelled incidence in all but three pathogens (Salmonella, Shigella, STEC O157) was significantly lower than the observed and the upward trend in Campylobacter was reversed from an observed 2.8% yearly increase to a modelled -2.8% yearly decrease (95% credible interval: -4.0, -1.4). CONCLUSIONS: Severe outcomes may be useful indicators in evaluating trends in surveillance systems that have undergone a marked change. |
Predicting food sources of Listeria monocytogenes based on genomic profiling using random forest model
Gu W , Cui Z , Stroika S , Carleton HA , Conrad A , Katz LS , Richardson LC , Hunter J , Click ES , Bruce BB . Foodborne Pathog Dis 2023 20 (12) 579-586 Listeria monocytogenes can cause severe foodborne illness, including miscarriage during pregnancy or death in newborn infants. When outbreaks of L. monocytogenes illness occur, it may be possible to determine the food source of the outbreak. However, most reported L. monocytogenes illnesses do not occur as part of a recognized outbreak and most of the time the food source of sporadic L. monocytogenes illness in people cannot be determined. In the United States, L. monocytogenes isolates from patients, foods, and environments are routinely sequenced and analyzed by whole genome multilocus sequence typing (wgMLST) for outbreak detection by PulseNet, the national molecular surveillance system for foodborne illnesses. We investigated whether machine learning approaches applied to wgMLST allele call data could assist in attribution analysis of food source of L. monocytogenes isolates. We compiled isolates with a known source from five food categories (dairy, fruit, meat, seafood, and vegetable) using the metadata of L. monocytogenes isolates in PulseNet, deduplicated closely genetically related isolates, and developed random forest models to predict the food sources of isolates. Prediction accuracy of the final model varied across the food categories; it was highest for meat (65%), followed by fruit (45%), vegetable (45%), dairy (44%), and seafood (37%); overall accuracy was 49%, compared with the naive prediction accuracy of 28%. Our results show that random forest can be used to capture genetically complex features of high-resolution wgMLST for attribution of isolates to their sources. |
A Bayesian method for exposure prevalence comparison during foodborne disease outbreak investigations
Khan MA , Bruce BB , Bottichio L , Wise M . Foodborne Pathog Dis 2023 20 (9) 414-418 Abstract CDC and health departments investigate foodborne disease outbreaks to identify a source. To generate and test hypotheses about vehicles, investigators typically compare exposure prevalence among case-patients with the general population using a one-sample binomial test. We propose a Bayesian alternative that also accounts for uncertainty in the estimate of exposure prevalence in the reference population. We compared exposure prevalence in a 2020 outbreak of Escherichia coli O157:H7 illnesses linked to leafy greens with 2018-2019 FoodNet Population Survey estimates. We ran prospective simulations using our Bayesian approach at three time points during the investigation. The posterior probability that leafy green consumption prevalence was higher than the general population prevalence increased as additional case-patients were interviewed. Probabilities were >0.70 for multiple leafy green items 2 weeks before the exact binomial p-value was statistically significant. A Bayesian approach to assessing exposure prevalence among cases could be superior to the one-sample binomial test typically used during foodborne outbreak investigations. |
Epidemiology and antimicrobial resistance of Campylobacter infections in the United States, 2005-2018
Ford L , Healy JM , Cui Z , Ahart L , Medalla F , Ray LC , Reynolds J , Laughlin ME , Vugia DJ , Hanna S , Bennett C , Chen J , Rose EB , Bruce BB , Payne DC , Francois Watkins LK . Open Forum Infect Dis 2023 10 (8) ofad378 BACKGROUND: Campylobacter is the most common cause of bacterial diarrhea in the United States; resistance to macrolides and fluoroquinolones limits treatment options. We examined the epidemiology of US Campylobacter infections and changes in resistance over time. METHODS: The Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network receives information on laboratory-confirmed Campylobacter cases from 10 US sites, and the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System receives a subset of isolates from these cases for antimicrobial susceptibility testing. We estimated trends in incidence of Campylobacter infection, adjusting for sex, age, and surveillance changes attributable to culture-independent diagnostic tests. We compared percentages of isolates resistant to erythromycin or ciprofloxacin during 2005-2016 with 2017-2018 and used multivariable logistic regression to examine the association of international travel with resistance. RESULTS: Adjusted Campylobacter incidence remained stable or decreased for all groups analyzed since 2012. Among 2449 linked records in 2017-2018, the median patient age was 40.2 years (interquartile range, 21.6-57.8 years), 54.8% of patients were male, 17.2% were hospitalized, and 0.2% died. The percentage of resistant infections increased from 24.5% in 2005-2016 to 29.7% in 2017-2018 for ciprofloxacin (P < .001) and from 2.6% to 3.3% for erythromycin (P = .04). Persons with recent international travel had higher odds than nontravelers of having isolates resistant to ciprofloxacin (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] varied from 1.7 to 10.6 by race/ethnicity) and erythromycin (aOR = 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-2.1). CONCLUSIONS: Campylobacter incidence has remained stable or decreased, whereas resistance to antimicrobials recommended for treatment has increased. Recent international travel increased the risk of resistance. |
An enhanced method for calculating trends in infections caused by pathogens transmitted commonly through food (preprint)
Weller DL , Ray LC , Payne DC , Griffin PM , Hoekstra RM , Rose EB , Bruce BB . medRxiv 2022 17 This brief methods paper is being published concomitantly with "Preliminary Incidence and Trends of Infections Caused by Pathogens Transmitted Commonly Through Food- Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network, 10 U.S. Sites, 2016-2021" in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports (MMWR). That article describes the application of the new model described here to analyze trends and evaluate progress towards the prevention of infection from enteric pathogens in the United States. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license. |
Preliminary incidence and trends of infections caused by pathogens transmitted commonly through food - Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network, 10 U.S. Sites, 2022
Delahoy MJ , Shah HJ , Weller DL , Ray LC , Smith K , McGuire S , Trevejo RT , Scallan Walter E , Wymore K , Rissman T , McMillian M , Lathrop S , LaClair B , Boyle MM , Harris S , Zablotsky-Kufel J , Houck K , Devine CJ , Lau CE , Tauxe RV , Bruce BB , Griffin PM , Payne DC . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023 72 (26) 701-706 Each year, infections from major foodborne pathogens are responsible for an estimated 9.4 million illnesses, 56,000 hospitalizations, and 1,350 deaths in the United States (1). To evaluate progress toward prevention of enteric infections in the United States, the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) conducts surveillance for laboratory-diagnosed infections caused by eight pathogens transmitted commonly through food at 10 U.S. sites. During 2020-2021, FoodNet detected decreases in many infections that were due to behavioral modifications, public health interventions, and changes in health care-seeking and testing practices during the COVID-19 pandemic. This report presents preliminary estimates of pathogen-specific annual incidences during 2022, compared with average annual incidences during 2016-2018, the reference period for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Healthy People 2030 targets (2). Many pandemic interventions ended by 2022, resulting in a resumption of outbreaks, international travel, and other factors leading to enteric infections. During 2022, annual incidences of illnesses caused by the pathogens Campylobacter, Salmonella, Shigella, and Listeria were similar to average annual incidences during 2016-2018; however, incidences of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), Yersinia, Vibrio, and Cyclospora illnesses were higher. Increasing culture-independent diagnostic test (CIDT) usage likely contributed to increased detection by identifying infections that would have remained undetected before widespread CIDT usage. Reducing pathogen contamination during poultry slaughter and processing of leafy greens requires collaboration among food growers and processors, retail stores, restaurants, and regulators. |
Risk factors for non-O157 shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli infections, United States
Marder EP , Cui Z , Bruce BB , Richardson LC , Boyle MM , Cieslak PR , Comstock N , Lathrop S , Garman K , McGuire S , Olson D , Vugia DJ , Wilson S , Griffin PM , Medus C . Emerg Infect Dis 2023 29 (6) 1183-1190 Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) causes acute diarrheal illness. To determine risk factors for non-O157 STEC infection, we enrolled 939 patients and 2,464 healthy controls in a case-control study conducted in 10 US sites. The highest population-attributable fractions for domestically acquired infections were for eating lettuce (39%), tomatoes (21%), or at a fast-food restaurant (23%). Exposures with 10%-19% population attributable fractions included eating at a table service restaurant, eating watermelon, eating chicken, pork, beef, or iceberg lettuce prepared in a restaurant, eating exotic fruit, taking acid-reducing medication, and living or working on or visiting a farm. Significant exposures with high individual-level risk (odds ratio >10) among those >1 year of age who did not travel internationally were all from farm animal environments. To markedly decrease the number of STEC-related illnesses, prevention measures should focus on decreasing contamination of produce and improving the safety of foods prepared in restaurants. |
Foodborne illness outbreaks linked to unpasteurized milk and relationship to changes in state laws - United States, 1998-2018
Koski L , Kisselburgh H , Landsman L , Hulkower R , Howard-Williams M , Salah Z , Kim S , Bruce BB , Bazaco MC , Batz MB , Parker CC , Leonard CL , Datta AR , Williams EN , Stapleton GS , Penn M , Whitham HK , Nichols M . Epidemiol Infect 2022 150 1-34 Consumption of unpasteurised milk in the United States has presented a public health challenge for decades because of the increased risk of pathogen transmission causing illness outbreaks. We analysed Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System data to characterise unpasteurised milk outbreaks. Using Poisson and negative binomial regression, we compared the number of outbreaks and outbreak-associated illnesses between jurisdictions grouped by legal status of unpasteurised milk sale based on a May 2019 survey of state laws. During 2013-2018, 75 outbreaks with 675 illnesses occurred that were linked to unpasteurised milk; of these, 325 illnesses (48%) were among people aged 0-19 years. Of 74 single-state outbreaks, 58 (78%) occurred in states where the sale of unpasteurised milk was expressly allowed. Compared with jurisdictions where retail sales were prohibited (n = 24), those where sales were expressly allowed (n = 27) were estimated to have 3.2 (95% CI 1.4-7.6) times greater number of outbreaks; of these, jurisdictions where sale was allowed in retail stores (n = 14) had 3.6 (95% CI 1.3-9.6) times greater number of outbreaks compared with those where sale was allowed on-farm only (n = 13). This study supports findings of previously published reports indicating that state laws resulting in increased availability of unpasteurised milk are associated with more outbreak-associated illnesses and outbreaks. |
Preliminary Incidence and Trends of Infections Caused by Pathogens Transmitted Commonly Through Food - Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network, 10 U.S. Sites, 2016-2021.
Collins JP , Shah HJ , Weller DL , Ray LC , Smith K , McGuire S , Trevejo RT , Jervis RH , Vugia DJ , Rissman T , Garman KN , Lathrop S , LaClair B , Boyle MM , Harris S , Kufel JZ , Tauxe RV , Bruce BB , Rose EB , Griffin PM , Payne DC . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022 71 (40) 1260-1264 To evaluate progress toward prevention of enteric infections in the United States, the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) conducts active population-based surveillance for laboratory-diagnosed infections caused by Campylobacter, Cyclospora, Listeria, Salmonella, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), Shigella, Vibrio, and Yersinia at 10 U.S. sites. This report summarizes preliminary 2021 data and describes changes in annual incidence compared with the average annual incidence for 2016-2018, the reference period for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' (HHS) Healthy People 2030 goals for some pathogens (1). During 2021, the incidence of infections caused by Salmonella decreased, incidence of infections caused by Cyclospora, Yersinia, and Vibrio increased, and incidence of infections caused by other pathogens did not change. As in 2020, behavioral modifications and public health interventions implemented to control the COVID-19 pandemic might have decreased transmission of enteric infections (2). Other factors (e.g., increased use of telemedicine and continued increase in use of culture-independent diagnostic tests [CIDTs]) might have altered their detection or reporting (2). Much work remains to achieve HHS Healthy People 2030 goals, particularly for Salmonella infections, which are frequently attributed to poultry products and produce, and Campylobacter infections, which are frequently attributed to chicken products (3). |
Foodborne illness outbreaks reported to national surveillance, United States, 2009-2018
White AE , Tillman AR , Hedberg C , Bruce BB , Batz M , Seys SA , Dewey-Mattia D , Bazaco MC , Walter ES . Emerg Infect Dis 2022 28 (6) 1117-1127 Foodborne outbreaks reported to national surveillance systems represent a subset of all outbreaks in the United States; not all outbreaks are detected, investigated, and reported. We described the structural factors and outbreak characteristics of outbreaks reported during 2009-2018. We categorized states (plus DC) as high (highest quintile), middle (middle 3 quintiles), or low (lowest quintile) reporters on the basis of the number of reported outbreaks per 10 million population. Analysis revealed considerable variation across states in the number and types of foodborne outbreaks reported. High-reporting states reported 4 times more outbreaks than low reporters. Low reporters were more likely than high reporters to report larger outbreaks and less likely to implicate a setting or food vehicle; however, we did not observe a significant difference in the types of food vehicles identified. Per capita funding was strongly associated with increased reporting. Investments in public health programming have a measurable effect on outbreak reporting. |
Nearest-neighbors matching for case-control study analyses: better risk factor identification from a study of sporadic campylobacteriosis in the United States
Cui Z , Marder EP , Click ES , Hoekstra RM , Bruce BB . Epidemiology 2022 33 (5) 633-641 BACKGROUND: Case-control studies are commonly used to explore factors associated with enteric bacterial diseases. Control of confounding is challenging due to the large number of exposures of interest and the low frequencies of many of them. METHODS: We evaluated nearest-neighbors matching in a case-control study (originally 1:1 matched, published in 2004) of sporadic Campylobacter infections that included information on 433 exposures in 2,632 subjects during 1998-1999. We performed multiple imputation of missing data (m=100) and calculated Gower distances between cases and controls using all possible confounders for each exposure in each dataset. We matched each case with ≤20 controls within a data-determined distance. We calculated odds ratios and population attributable fractions (PAFs). RESULTS: Examination of pairwise correlation between exposures found very strong associations for 1,046 pairs of exposures. More than 100 exposures were associated with campylobacteriosis, including nearly all risk factors identified using the previously published approach that included only 16 exposures and some less studied, rare exposures such as consumption of chicken liver and raw clams. Consumption of chicken and non-poultry meat had the highest PAFs (62% and 59%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Nearest-neighbors matching appears to provide an improved ability to examine rare exposures and better control for numerous highly associated confounders. |
The Use of Whole-Genome Sequencing by the Federal Interagency Collaboration for Genomics for Food and Feed Safety in the United States.
Stevens EL , Carleton HA , Beal J , Tillman GE , Lindsey RL , Lauer AC , Pightling A , Jarvis KG , Ottesen A , Ramachandran P , Hintz L , Katz LS , Folster JP , Whichard JM , Trees E , Timme RE , McDermott P , Wolpert B , Bazaco M , Zhao S , Lindley S , Bruce BB , Griffin PM , Brown E , Allard M , Tallent S , Irvin K , Hoffmann M , Wise M , Tauxe R , Gerner-Smidt P , Simmons M , Kissler B , Defibaugh-Chavez S , Klimke W , Agarwala R , Lindsay J , Cook K , Austerman SR , Goldman D , McGarry S , Hale KR , Dessai U , Musser SM , Braden C . J Food Prot 2022 85 (5) 755-772 This multi-agency report developed under the Interagency Collaboration for Genomics for Food and Feed Safety (Gen-FS) provides an overview of the use of and transition to Whole-Genome Sequencing (WGS) technology to detect and characterize pathogens transmitted commonly by food and identify their sources. We describe foodborne pathogen analysis, investigation, and harmonization efforts among federal agencies, including the National Institutes of Health (NIH); the Department of Health and Human Services' Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA); and the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS), Agricultural Research Service (ARS), and Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). We describe single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), core-genome (cg) and whole-genome multi-locus sequence typing (wgMLST) data analysis methods as used in CDC's PulseNet and FDA's GenomeTrakr networks, underscoring the complementary nature of the results for linking genetically related foodborne pathogens during outbreak investigations while allowing flexibility to meet the specific needs of Gen-FS agency partners. We highlight how we apply WGS to pathogen characterization (virulence and antimicrobial resistance profiles), source attribution efforts, and increasing transparency by making the sequences and other data publicly available through the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). Finally, we highlight the impact of current trends in the use of culture-independent diagnostics tests (CIDT) for human diagnostic testing on analytical approaches related to food safety. Lastly, we highlight what is next for WGS in food safety. |
Salmonella Serotypes Associated with Illnesses after Thanksgiving Holiday, United States, 1998-2018
Tobolowsky FA , Cui Z , Hoekstra RM , Bruce BB . Emerg Infect Dis 2022 28 (1) 210-213 We sought to determine which Salmonella serotypes cause illness related to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States and to foods disproportionately eaten then (e.g., turkey). Using routine surveillance for 1998-2018 and a case-crossover design, we found serotype Reading to be most strongly associated with Thanksgiving. |
Estimating the number of illnesses caused by agents transmitted commonly through food: A scoping review
Scallan Walter EJ , Griffin PM , Bruce BB , Hoekstra RM . Foodborne Pathog Dis 2021 18 (12) 841-858 Estimates of the overall human health impact of agents transmitted commonly through food complement surveillance and help guide food safety interventions and regulatory initiatives. The purpose of this scoping review was to summarize the methods and reporting practices used in studies that estimate the total number of illnesses caused by these agents. We identified and included 43 studies published from January 1, 1995, to December 31, 2019, by searching PubMed and screening selected articles for other relevant publications. Selected articles presented original estimates of the number of illnesses caused by ≥1 agent transmitted commonly through food. The number of agents (species or subspecies for pathogens) included in each study ranged from 1 to 31 (median: 4.5; mean: 9.2). Of the 40 agents assessed across the 43 studies, the most common agent was Salmonella (36; 84% of studies), followed by Campylobacter (33; 77%), Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (25; 58%), and norovirus (20; 47%). Investigators used a variety of data sources and methods that could be grouped into four distinct estimation approaches-direct, surveillance data scaled-up, syndrome or population scaled-down, and inferred. Based on our review, we propose four recommendations to improve the interpretability, comparability, and reproducibility of studies that estimate the number of illnesses caused by agents transmitted commonly through food. These include providing an assessment of statistical and nonstatistical uncertainty, providing a ranking of estimates by agent, including uncertainties; describing the rationale used to select agents and data sources; and publishing raw data and models, along with clear, detailed methods. These recommendations could lead to better decision-making about food safety policies. Although these recommendations have been made in the context of illness estimation for agents transmitted commonly through food, they also apply to estimates of other health outcomes and conditions. |
Late conditions diagnosed 1-4 months following an initial COVID-19 encounter: a matched cohort study using inpatient and outpatient administrative data - United States, March 1-June 30, 2020.
Chevinsky JR , Tao G , Lavery AM , Kukielka EA , Click ES , Malec D , Kompaniyets L , Bruce BB , Yusuf H , Goodman AB , Dixon MG , Nakao JH , Datta SD , Mac Kenzie WR , Kadri S , Saydah S , Giovanni JE , Gundlapalli AV . Clin Infect Dis 2021 73 S5-S16 BACKGROUND: Late sequelae of COVID-19 have been reported; however, few studies have investigated the time-course or incidence of late new COVID-19-related health conditions (post-COVID conditions) after COVID-19 diagnosis. Studies distinguishing post-COVID conditions from late conditions caused by other etiologies are lacking. Using data from a large administrative all-payer database, we assessed the type, association, and timing of post-COVID conditions following COVID-19 diagnosis. METHODS: Using the Premier Healthcare Database Special COVID-19 Release (PHD-SR) (release date, October 20, 2020) data, during March-June 2020, 27,589 inpatients and 46,857 outpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 (case-patients) were 1:1 matched with patients without COVID-19 through the 4-month follow-up period (control-patients) by using propensity score matching. In this matched-cohort study, adjusted odds ratios were calculated to assess for late conditions that were more common in case-patients compared with control-patients. Incidence proportion was calculated for conditions that were more common in case-patients than control-patients during 31-120 days following a COVID-19 encounter. RESULTS: During 31-120 days after an initial COVID-19 inpatient hospitalization, 7.0% of adults experienced at least one of five post-COVID conditions. Among adult outpatients with COVID-19, 7.7% experienced at least one of ten post-COVID conditions. During 31-60 days after an initial outpatient encounter, adults with COVID-19 were 2.8 times as likely to experience acute pulmonary embolism as outpatient control-patients and were also more likely to experience a range of conditions affecting multiple body systems (e.g. nonspecific chest pain, fatigue, headache, and respiratory, nervous, circulatory, and gastrointestinal system symptoms) than outpatient control-patients. Children with COVID-19 were not more likely to experience late conditions than children without COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: These findings add to the evidence of late health conditions possibly related to COVID-19 in adults following COVID-19 diagnosis and can inform health care practice and resource planning for follow-up COVID-19 care. |
Trends in Racial and Ethnic Disparities in COVID-19 Hospitalizations, by Region - United States, March-December 2020.
Romano SD , Blackstock AJ , Taylor EV , El Burai Felix S , Adjei S , Singleton CM , Fuld J , Bruce BB , Boehmer TK . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2021 70 (15) 560-565 Persons from racial and ethnic minority groups are disproportionately affected by COVID-19, including experiencing increased risk for infection (1), hospitalization (2,3), and death (4,5). Using administrative discharge data, CDC assessed monthly trends in the proportion of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 among racial and ethnic groups in the United States during March-December 2020 by U.S. Census region. Cumulative and monthly age-adjusted COVID-19 proportionate hospitalization ratios (aPHRs) were calculated for racial and ethnic minority patients relative to non-Hispanic White patients. Within each of the four U.S. Census regions, the cumulative aPHR was highest for Hispanic or Latino patients (range = 2.7-3.9). Racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 hospitalization were largest during May-July 2020; the peak monthly aPHR among Hispanic or Latino patients was >9.0 in the West and Midwest, >6.0 in the South, and >3.0 in the Northeast. The aPHRs declined for most racial and ethnic groups during July-November 2020 but increased for some racial and ethnic groups in some regions during December. Disparities in COVID-19 hospitalization by race/ethnicity varied by region and became less pronounced over the course of the pandemic, as COVID-19 hospitalizations increased among non-Hispanic White persons. Identification of specific social determinants of health that contribute to geographic and temporal differences in racial and ethnic disparities at the local level can help guide tailored public health prevention strategies and equitable allocation of resources, including COVID-19 vaccination, to address COVID-19-related health disparities and can inform approaches to achieve greater health equity during future public health threats. |
Characteristics and Risk Factors of Hospitalized and Nonhospitalized COVID-19 Patients, Atlanta, Georgia, USA, March-April 2020.
Pettrone K , Burnett E , Link-Gelles R , Haight SC , Schrodt C , England L , Gomes DJ , Shamout M , O'Laughlin K , Kimball A , Blau EF , Ladva CN , Szablewski CM , Tobin-D'Angelo M , Oosmanally N , Drenzek C , Browning SD , Bruce BB , da Silva J , Gold JAW , Jackson BR , Morris SB , Natarajan P , Fanfair RN , Patel PR , Rogers-Brown J , Rossow J , Wong KK , Murphy DJ , Blum JM , Hollberg J , Lefkove B , Brown FW , Shimabukuro T , Midgley CM , Tate JE , Killerby ME . Emerg Infect Dis 2021 27 (4) 1164-1168 We compared the characteristics of hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients who had coronavirus disease in Atlanta, Georgia, USA. We found that risk for hospitalization increased with a patient's age and number of concurrent conditions. We also found a potential association between hospitalization and high hemoglobin A1c levels in persons with diabetes. |
COVID-19 Clinical Phenotypes: Presentation and Temporal Progression of Disease in a Cohort of Hospitalized Adults in Georgia, United States.
da Silva JF , Hernandez-Romieu AC , Browning SD , Bruce BB , Natarajan P , Morris SB , Gold JAW , Neblett Fanfair R , Rogers-Brown J , Rossow J , Szablewski CM , Oosmanally N , D'Angelo MT , Drenzek C , Murphy DJ , Hollberg J , Blum JM , Jansen R , Wright DW , Sewell W , Owens J , Lefkove B , Brown FW , Burton DC , Uyeki TM , Patel PR , Jackson BR , Wong KK . Open Forum Infect Dis 2021 8 (1) ofaa596 BACKGROUND: The epidemiological features and outcomes of hospitalized adults with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been described; however, the temporal progression and medical complications of disease among hospitalized patients require further study. Detailed descriptions of the natural history of COVID-19 among hospitalized patients are paramount to optimize health care resource utilization, and the detection of different clinical phenotypes may allow tailored clinical management strategies. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 305 adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in 8 academic and community hospitals. Patient characteristics included demographics, comorbidities, medication use, medical complications, intensive care utilization, and longitudinal vital sign and laboratory test values. We examined laboratory and vital sign trends by mortality status and length of stay. To identify clinical phenotypes, we calculated Gower's dissimilarity matrix between each patient's clinical characteristics and clustered similar patients using the partitioning around medoids algorithm. RESULTS: One phenotype of 6 identified was characterized by high mortality (49%), older age, male sex, elevated inflammatory markers, high prevalence of cardiovascular disease, and shock. Patients with this severe phenotype had significantly elevated peak C-reactive protein creatinine, D-dimer, and white blood cell count and lower minimum lymphocyte count compared with other phenotypes (Pā <ā .01, all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: Among a cohort of hospitalized adults, we identified a severe phenotype of COVID-19 based on the characteristics of its clinical course and poor prognosis. These findings need to be validated in other cohorts, as improved understanding of clinical phenotypes and risk factors for their development could help inform prognosis and tailored clinical management for COVID-19. |
Attribution of illnesses transmitted by food and water to comprehensive transmission pathways using structured expert judgment, United States
Beshearse E , Bruce BB , Nane GF , Cooke RM , Aspinall W , Hald T , Crim SM , Griffin PM , Fullerton KE , Collier SA , Benedict KM , Beach MJ , Hall AJ , Havelaar AH . Emerg Infect Dis 2021 27 (1) 182-195 Illnesses transmitted by food and water cause a major disease burden in the United States despite advancements in food safety, water treatment, and sanitation. We report estimates from a structured expert judgment study using 48 experts who applied Cooke's classical model of the proportion of disease attributable to 5 major transmission pathways (foodborne, waterborne, person-to-person, animal contact, and environmental) and 6 subpathways (food handler-related, under foodborne; recreational, drinking, and nonrecreational/nondrinking, under waterborne; and presumed person-to-person-associated and presumed animal contact-associated, under environmental). Estimates for 33 pathogens were elicited, including bacteria such as Salmonella enterica, Campylobacter spp., Legionella spp., and Pseudomonas spp.; protozoa such as Acanthamoeba spp., Cyclospora cayetanensis, and Naegleria fowleri; and viruses such as norovirus, rotavirus, and hepatitis A virus. The results highlight the importance of multiple pathways in the transmission of the included pathogens and can be used to guide prioritization of public health interventions. |
Estimate of burden and direct healthcare cost of infectious waterborne disease in the United States
Collier SA , Deng L , Adam EA , Benedict KM , Beshearse EM , Blackstock AJ , Bruce BB , Derado G , Edens C , Fullerton KE , Gargano JW , Geissler AL , Hall AJ , Havelaar AH , Hill VR , Hoekstra RM , Reddy SC , Scallan E , Stokes EK , Yoder JS , Beach MJ . Emerg Infect Dis 2021 27 (1) 140-149 Provision of safe drinking water in the United States is a great public health achievement. However, new waterborne disease challenges have emerged (e.g., aging infrastructure, chlorine-tolerant and biofilm-related pathogens, increased recreational water use). Comprehensive estimates of the health burden for all water exposure routes (ingestion, contact, inhalation) and sources (drinking, recreational, environmental) are needed. We estimated total illnesses, emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, deaths, and direct healthcare costs for 17 waterborne infectious diseases. About 7.15 million waterborne illnesses occur annually (95% credible interval [CrI] 3.88 million-12.0 million), results in 601,000 ED visits (95% CrI 364,000-866,000), 118,000 hospitalizations (95% CrI 86,800-150,000), and 6,630 deaths (95% CrI 4,520-8,870) and incurring US $3.33 billion (95% CrI 1.37 billion-8.77 billion) in direct healthcare costs. Otitis externa and norovirus infection were the most common illnesses. Most hospitalizations and deaths were caused by biofilm-associated pathogens (nontuberculous mycobacteria, Pseudomonas, Legionella), costing US $2.39 billion annually. |
Predictors at admission of mechanical ventilation and death in an observational cohort of adults hospitalized with COVID-19.
Jackson BR , Gold JAW , Natarajan P , Rossow J , Neblett Fanfair R , da Silva J , Wong KK , Browning SD , Bamrah Morris S , Rogers-Brown J , Hernandez-Romieu AC , Szablewski CM , Oosmanally N , Tobin-D'Angelo M , Drenzek C , Murphy DJ , Hollberg J , Blum JM , Jansen R , Wright DW , SeweSll WM , Owens JD , Lefkove B , Brown FW , Burton DC , Uyeki TM , Bialek SR , Patel PR , Bruce BB . Clin Infect Dis 2020 73 (11) e4141-e4151 BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) can cause severe illness and death. Predictors of poor outcome collected on hospital admission may inform clinical and public health decisions. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observational cohort investigation of 297 adults admitted to eight academic and community hospitals in Georgia, United States, during March 2020. Using standardized medical record abstraction, we collected data on predictors including admission demographics, underlying medical conditions, outpatient antihypertensive medications, recorded symptoms, vital signs, radiographic findings, and laboratory values. We used random forest models to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for predictors of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and death. RESULTS: Compared with age <45 years, ages 65-74 years and ≥75 years were predictors of IMV (aOR 3.12, CI 1.47-6.60; aOR 2.79, CI 1.23-6.33) and the strongest predictors for death (aOR 12.92, CI 3.26-51.25; aOR 18.06, CI 4.43-73.63). Comorbidities associated with death (aORs from 2.4 to 3.8, p <0.05) included end-stage renal disease, coronary artery disease, and neurologic disorders, but not pulmonary disease, immunocompromise, or hypertension. Pre-hospital use vs. non-use of angiotensin receptor blockers (aOR 2.02, CI 1.03-3.96) and dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers (aOR 1.91, CI 1.03-3.55) were associated with death. CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for patient and clinical characteristics, older age was the strongest predictor of death, exceeding comorbidities, abnormal vital signs, and laboratory test abnormalities. That coronary artery disease, but not chronic lung disease, was associated with death among hospitalized patients warrants further investigation, as do associations between certain antihypertensive medications and death. |
Characteristics and Clinical Outcomes of Adult Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 - Georgia, March 2020.
Gold JAW , Wong KK , Szablewski CM , Patel PR , Rossow J , da Silva J , Natarajan P , Morris SB , Fanfair RN , Rogers-Brown J , Bruce BB , Browning SD , Hernandez-Romieu AC , Furukawa NW , Kang M , Evans ME , Oosmanally N , Tobin-D'Angelo M , Drenzek C , Murphy DJ , Hollberg J , Blum JM , Jansen R , Wright DW , Sewell WM3rd , Owens JD , Lefkove B , Brown FW , Burton DC , Uyeki TM , Bialek SR , Jackson BR . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020 69 (18) 545-550 SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), was first detected in the United States during January 2020 (1). Since then, >980,000 cases have been reported in the United States, including >55,000 associated deaths as of April 28, 2020 (2). Detailed data on demographic characteristics, underlying medical conditions, and clinical outcomes for persons hospitalized with COVID-19 are needed to inform prevention strategies and community-specific intervention messages. For this report, CDC, the Georgia Department of Public Health, and eight Georgia hospitals (seven in metropolitan Atlanta and one in southern Georgia) summarized medical record-abstracted data for hospitalized adult patients with laboratory-confirmed* COVID-19 who were admitted during March 2020. Among 305 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, 61.6% were aged <65 years, 50.5% were female, and 83.2% with known race/ethnicity were non-Hispanic black (black). Over a quarter of patients (26.2%) did not have conditions thought to put them at higher risk for severe disease, including being aged >/=65 years. The proportion of hospitalized patients who were black was higher than expected based on overall hospital admissions. In an adjusted time-to-event analysis, black patients were not more likely than were nonblack patients to receive invasive mechanical ventilation(dagger) (IMV) or to die during hospitalization (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.35-1.13). Given the overrepresentation of black patients within this hospitalized cohort, it is important for public health officials to ensure that prevention activities prioritize communities and racial/ethnic groups most affected by COVID-19. Clinicians and public officials should be aware that all adults, regardless of underlying conditions or age, are at risk for serious illness from COVID-19. |
Characteristics of Campylobacter and Salmonella infections and acute gastroenteritis in older adults in Australia, Canada, and the United States
White AE , Ciampa N , Chen Y , Kirk M , Nesbitt A , Bruce BB , Walter ES . Clin Infect Dis 2019 69 (9) 1545-1552 BACKGROUND: The early detection of enteric infections in older adults is challenging because typical signs and symptoms of disease may be less common, absent, or overlooked. Understanding illness characteristics of enteric infections among older adults could improve the timeliness and accuracy of clinical diagnoses, thereby improving patient outcomes and increasing cases reported to surveillance. METHODS: Here, we describe illness characteristics (percentage reporting bloody diarrhea, fever, vomiting, abdominal pain; percentage hospitalized; duration of hospitalization; and duration of illness) among older adults (>/=65 years) with acute gastroenteritis and culture-confirmed Campylobacter and nontyphoidal Salmonella infections in Australia, Canada, and the United States and compare these characteristics with those among younger people (<5 years, 5-24 years, and 25-64 years). RESULTS: A significant negative correlation was found between all symptoms and increasing age group, except for bloody diarrhea in cases of acute gastroenteritis. Adults aged >/=85 years reported bloody diarrhea in only 9% of nontyphoidal Salmonella and 4% of Campylobacter infections compared with 59% and 55% among children aged <5 years. Conversely, a greater percentage of older adults (>/=65) than younger persons (<5, 5-24, 25-64) reported being hospitalized, with an increasing linear relationship in age groups 65 years and older. CONCLUSIONS: Although older adults are more likely to have severe illness and be hospitalized, we found that the proportion of persons reporting symptoms typically associated with enteric infections decreases with age. These findings have implications for clinical recognition and treatment of gastrointestinal illness, as well as for public health research. |
Salmonella serotypes: A novel measure of association with foodborne transmission
Luvsansharav UO , Vieira A , Bennett S , Huang J , Healy JM , Hoekstra RM , Bruce BB , Cole D . Foodborne Pathog Dis 2019 17 (2) 151-155 Most nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) illnesses in the United States are thought to be foodborne. However, transmission routes likely vary among the different serotypes. We developed a relative ranking of NTS serotypes according to the strength of their association with foodborne transmission. We used Laboratory-based Enteric Disease Surveillance data to estimate the proportion of infections for each Salmonella serotype reported from 1998 to 2015 and Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System data to calculate the proportion of foodborne outbreak-associated Salmonella illnesses caused by each serotype. We calculated the ratios of these proportions to create a foodborne relatedness (FBR) measure for each serotype. Of the top 20 serotypes, Saintpaul (2.14), Heidelberg (1.61), and Berta (1.48) had the highest FBR measures; Mississippi (0.01), Bareilly (0.13), and Paratyphi B variant L(+) tartrate(+) (0.20) had the lowest. The FBRs for the three most prevalent serotypes were 1.22 for Enteritidis, 0.77 for Typhimurium, and 1.16 for Newport. This method provides a quantitative approach to estimating the relative differences in the likelihood that an illness caused by a particular serotype was transmitted by food, which may aid in tailoring strategies to prevent Salmonella illnesses and guide future research into serotype-specific source attribution. |
Postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome after Campylobacter infection
Scallan Walter EJ , Crim SM , Bruce BB , Griffin PM . Am J Gastroenterol 2019 114 (10) 1649-1656 OBJECTIVES: Postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome (PI-IBS) is an important sequela of Campylobacter infection. Our goal is to estimate the incidence of Campylobacter-associated PI-IBS in the United States. METHODS: Data from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2014, were obtained from the MarketScan Research Commercial Claims and Encounters Database. We identified patients with an encounter that included an International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis code for "intestinal infection due to Campylobacter" (008.43) and individually matched them (on age group, sex, and length of enrollment) to a group of persons without a diagnosed Campylobacter infection (non-cases). The primary outcome of interest was a new diagnosis of IBS (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification 564.1). RESULTS: Our final matched cohort included 4,143 cases and 20,491 non-cases. At 1 year, the incidence rate of IBS was 33.1 and 5.9 per 1,000 among cases and non-cases, respectively, with an unadjusted risk ratio of 5.6 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.3-7.3). After adjusting for healthcare utilization, the Cox proportional hazard ratio was 4.6 (95% CI: 3.5-6.1). Excluding those who received an IBS diagnosis within 90 days, the 1-year incidence rate of IBS was 16.7 and 3.9 per 1,000 among cases and non-cases, respectively, with an unadjusted risk ratio of 4.3 (95% CI: 3.0-6.2). DISCUSSION: Persons with a Campylobacter infection have a much higher risk of developing IBS compared with those not diagnosed with Campylobacter infection. The burden of Campylobacter-associated PI-IBS should be considered when assessing the overall impact of Campylobacter infections. |
Incidence of Campylobacter-associated Guillain-Barre syndrome estimated from health insurance data
Scallan Walter EJ , Crim SM , Bruce BB , Griffin PM . Foodborne Pathog Dis 2019 17 (1) 23-28 Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) is sometimes preceded by Campylobacter infection. We estimated the cumulative incidence of Campylobacter-associated GBS in the United States using a retrospective cohort design. We identified a cohort of patients with an International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) diagnosis code of "intestinal infection due to Campylobacter" (008.43) using MarketScan Research Databases for 2004-2013. Campylobacter patients with an encounter for "acute infective polyneuritis" (AIP; ICD-9-CM 357.0) were identified. Patients with an inpatient encounter having AIP as the principal diagnosis were considered probable GBS cases. Patients with probable GBS </=8 weeks after the Campylobacter encounter were considered probable Campylobacter-associated GBS cases. For comparison, we repeated this analysis for patients with "other Salmonella infections" (ICD-9-CM: 003). Among 9315 Campylobacter patients, 16 met the case definition for probable GBS. Two were hospitalized with probable GBS </=8 weeks after the encounter listing a Campylobacter diagnosis (9 and 54 days) and were considered probable cases of Campylobacter-associated GBS; this results in an estimated cumulative incidence of 21.5 per 100,000 Campylobacter patients (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.7-86.6), or 5% of all estimated GBS cases. The remaining 14 patients were diagnosed with probable GBS on the same encounter (n = 12) or 1-3 days (n = 2), before the encounter listing the Campylobacter diagnosis. Including these cases increased the cumulative incidence to 172 per 100,000 Campylobacter cases (95% CI: 101.7-285.5), 41% of estimated GBS cases. This study, using a method not previously applied to United States data, supports other data that Campylobacter is an important contributor to GBS, accounting for at least 5% and possibly as many as 41% of all GBS cases. These data can be used to inform estimates of the burden of Campylobacter infections, including economic cost. |
Sex and age distributions of persons in foodborne disease outbreaks and associations with food categories
Strassle PD , Gu W , Bruce BB , Gould LH . Epidemiol Infect 2019 147 e200 Sex and age differences in food preferences may be reflected in the demographics of outbreaks. Outbreaks from 1998-2015 with a single confirmed implicated food source in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System were analysed using logistic regression to assess associations between a food category, sex and age. Males were more likely to be involved in outbreaks attributed to beef, pork, game, dairy and shellfish; females were more likely to be involved in grains-beans, nuts-seeds, fruits, sprouts and vegetable row crops outbreaks. Children <5-years-old were more likely than other age groups to be involved in dairy outbreaks, children 5-19-years-old were most likely to be involved in beef and game outbreaks, adults 20-49-years-old were most likely to be involved in fish, shellfish and sprout outbreaks and adults 50-years-old were most likely to be involved in turkey outbreaks. Age and sex are associated with specific food categories in outbreaks. This information may be useful in helping to identify sources of foodborne disease outbreaks. |
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